My translation of the 10th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France. Dated: March 17. Subject: #JAPAN. Please share far & wide.
Please listen to this audio as it explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read. You will understand in real human terms why #WindofChange writes to Vladimir.
As always, my comments for clarification are in (parenthesis). #WindofChange's parenthesis are in [brackets]. So, let's roll:
"Vladimir, hello!
I will now supply information on events that occurred six months
ago. In this instance it’s easier: I can afford provide specifics which the
experts will be able to cross-verify, but details which won’t risk me being
identified.
In August 2021, Russia was quite seriously preparing for a localized
military conflict with Japan. Confidence that the countries would enter the
stage of acute confrontation and even war was high. Why Ukraine was chosen for
war in the end [the scenario was not changed much] is for others to answer.
So, August 2021. The Eastern Military District [VVO] was supplied
with Mi-8MTR-1 helicopters, equipped with the "Rychag-AV" (Рычаг-АВ)
electronic warfare system, the FSB declassified the data from the interrogation
of Otozo Yamada, commander-in-chief of the Japanese army during World War II,
the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan happened immediately after the US troops
withdrew, damaging the reputation of the US Democratic Party. Events that don't
seem to belong on the same page.
But let's start with the main point. The key stumbling block
between Moscow and Tokyo is the Kuril Islands.
For Japan, there is a cornerstone of its modern geopolitics here:
its status as a World War II loser still prevents the Japanese from having an
official military force, a foreign intelligence service and a number of other
things. For the Land of the Rising Sun, the return of the Kuril Islands would
actually mean a revision [or even cancellation] of its postwar status.
For Moscow - the Kurils are a bargaining chip. It's a bargaining
chip with Japan but even with China: The Heavenly Kingdom (China) takes any
attempted revisions to the postwar agreements very negatively, and a potential
victory for Tokyo in the dispute over the Kurils is unacceptable to Beijing. It
is so unacceptable that China would easily complicate Russia's life for making
such a "gift."
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was already placing a
strong emphasis on two things: trying to "negotiate" with Russia over
the Kuril issue and reforming the country's intelligence service. “Reform"
meant creating its own foreign intelligence service along the lines of
Britain's MI6. Historically, Japan's military intelligence has always been at a
high level, but after the defeat in World War II it was simply abolished at the
behest of the victors.
And if Putin was still trying to intrigue the Japanese at the end
of July (2021) with an "unprecedentedly interesting" offer on the
Kuril Islands, on the backdrop of Afghanistan everything began to change
rapidly. But what is the connection?
First, I will highlight specifically what began to change. Well, we
declassified the interrogation data of Otozo Yamada, commander-in-chief of the
Japanese army during World War II.
Initially, as early as August 8 the Russian mass media were rather stingy in
their comments on the news: they claimed that Japan had been preparing for war
with the USSR since 1938, plans of the attack were being hatched, diversions
were made, etc.
But on August 16, the Russian media literally exploded at the same
time, discussing the declassified documents in a completely different tone:
The Japanese allegedly conducted terrible biological experiments
on Soviet prisoners, and treated Soviet prisoners extremely badly. The details
of the plague lice that were used to torture prisoners were scrawled all over
the place.
Russia Today, the main mouthpiece of international propaganda,
also joined in.
The FSB actually had the task to launch an information campaign
against Japan in Russian society. Abruptly, suddenly and almost unexpectedly. That
is, if you don’t take into account the events in Afghanistan.
The Americans obviously didn't get it right, at minimum with this
picture:
The regime they supported managed to collapse before the Americans
even got out.
Taliban, who met no resistance, even slowed down towards the end,
so as not to drown in the shortage of middle-ranking managerial personnel
needed to wield the acquired authority.
Barack Obama even turned off comments on his social networks,
tired of the barrage of criticism directed at him.
And we are not even discussing the U.S.’ possible game of
geopolitics - we are talking about image and the picture of what was happening.
[Trump, of course, immediately attacked Biden in the information field]
And this is where the question of Japan for the United States [through
the Russian eyes] was opportune.
But before that, let's go back to the subject that the Russian Air
Force was aggressively deploying the Mi-8MTPR-1 helicopters during the same
period.
If we discuss the technical characteristics of the Electronic
warefare "Rychag-AV" on these helicopters, this system is capable of
interfering with the electronic radar of the enemy over the radius of hundreds
of kilometers.
And the reason for such actions is the fear of American missile
systems, which very soon could have been very close to Russian borders (around
Japan). "Strike first" and all that kind of stuff.
The U.S. did have plans in this region.
The priority, of course, is the growing confrontation with China,
and the peak of this confrontation is scheduled for 2023, when Chinese leader
Xi Jinping will seek re-election.
To make clear, Xi Jinping is a key opponent of the democratic camp
in the United States, so the victory of the head of the Communist Party of
China in the election will make the confrontation between the United States and
China very hot.
This is why it was seen as extremely important for Washington not
just to get Japan's support, but to delegate to it a rather complicated
function in confrontation with China.
Tokyo does not have a burning desire cross certain red lines with
Beijing, but...
If the United States makes the most significant [or, more
precisely, visible] contribution to the Russo-Japanese conflict [even if it is
quite local), namely, a victory for the Japanese side, the Japanese side will
automatically owe too much to Washington.
And Washington would’ve shifted the attention of domestic
audiences from failure in Afghanistan to success in Asia.
A caveat here: the Russian authorities [as You refer to them,
PolitBureau 2.0] really believe that all the countries around them, if they
cooperate with the United States, want to attack us.
For Japan, the very notion of "victory" in such a
hypothetical conflict could consist of only one thing: the signing of an
international treaty that would effectively "end" the status as the
capitulating country (from WW2) to allow some outcomes to be reconsidered. These
outcomes may be a pure formality, but the Kuril Islands look absolutely
perfect.
At minimum, to escalate the situation to the maximum, threaten war
and then starting negotiations was acceptable (in Russia). Just like prior to
the war with Ukraine, which did not prevent the war.
Russia is lagging in this geographical direction (East Asia), so
“silencing the far-fast sky” – is a task capable of providing Moscow
considerable points.
And the Afghan events have apparently finally convinced the
Kremlin that the U.S. will somewhat speed up the process of resolving the Kuril
question.
The likelihood of a military conflict was considered non-zero, and
there was active spin in the Russian information space against Japan.
The bet was placed on the fact that the Japanese specialized in
brutal biological experiments, showed inhumanity, and had a disposition for
Nazism.
And they should have demilitarized after the war, but they violate
these regulations, creating risks for Russia.
Subjects that made headlines: Russia saved the world from
biological war, declassified evidence of preparations for an attack by Japan on
the USSR, etc.
There wasn’t much faith in a victorious blitzkrieg in the event of
possible military clashes.
Apparently, that is why the war at that time and place did not
start [at that time - the summer of 2021 - no one believed in it, nor in the
war with Ukraine].
But on the whole, war was inevitable for Russia due to the
maniacal desire for war by the leadership (Putin is not alone in this). This
has become definitively obvious today; it was simply an underestimation of the
level of insanity at the time.
And there are many-many more such references, which in August 2021
were in the Russian media.
And now the bulk of the combat-ready units from that direction
have been redeployed to Ukraine.”
==============================
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