My translation of the 19th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange
inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated: April 29. Topic: More on the
#Transnistria false-flag terror attacks against civilians for May celebrations
& upcoming military planes masquerading as "humanitarian."
This is an immediate follow-up to the 18th #FSBletters,
so please read that first:
🧵My translation of the 18th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated: April 28. Subject: #Transnistria false-flag terror attacks against civilians for May celebrations & coverup of embezzled military funds. Please share far & wide.
As always, my comments for
clarification are in (parenthesis). #WindofChange's parenthesis are in
[brackets]. So, let's roll:
"I ask you to publish my information yesterday about
Transnistria - I have to say that so far there are more and more confirmations
of terrorist acts being prepared there.
The planning and execution are being carried
out by the GRU dumbasses, and this will almost certainly mean a hatchet job
with lots of casualties. (GRU is Russian Foreign Military Intelligence)
The leadership (in Russia) must understand
that the plan for terrorist attacks in the Transnistria CANNOT give them the
intended result.
The operational purpose of the (Russian
false-flag) attacks, besides everything else - to send "humanitarian
rescue operation" planes to Transnistria, which should block the risks of such
planes getting shot down by Romanian or Ukrainian air defense [in case they get
shot down, it could provide a possibility to enter a new stage of weapons use,
that is, untie the hands of unconventional methods]. (Note: #WindofChange *does
not* mean nuclear weapons.)
Thus, the bloody terrorist acts against
civilians should unblock the air corridor to Transnistria and allow for
offensive actions from there. (The “humanitarian” planes Russia intends to send
will be military equipment & soldiers to be used in war.)
As a result, we have all the risks of getting
into a hot conflict with NATO, expand the geography of the conflict and spice
it up with a senseless, large-scale terrorist attack against civilians.
P.S. If someone had just decided to write off
the warehouses waiting for an audit by setting them on fire, quite probably,
this would not have been vocalized.”
Unfortunately, the topic of terrorist attacks (Putin’s false
flags) on civilian objects has not gone anywhere, just changed geography. I
will tell you later what and how is moving here (FSB) with regards to this
subject.
Terrorist attacks with large-scale casualties are planned for the
May holidays in Transnistria. (May 9th is the Russian “Victory Day”
in WW2, typically celebrations begin May 1st. Transnistria is Russia-occupied
region in Moldova which borders Ukraine from south-west.)
"Reaction to the blatant act of aggression" is already
being actively prepared in all directions.
In addition, a strike on military facilities in the PMR (Transnistria)
is possible - enormous sums had been allocated for the military contingent of
the Russian army there, so if "Ukrainian saboteurs on their way from
Belgorod also destroy the auditable facilities" in the PMR, then many
important people will sleep much better. (Insinuation that large budget
allocated for military supplies in Transnistria was embezzled by those in
charge, so destruction of where these stocks were supposed to be would
eliminate evidence of corruption.)
Furthermore, Transnistria directly demonstrates its
reluctance to transition to the rails of military confrontation – they’re
already being physically dragged into the “geopolitical agenda of the day” by
force. Belarus managed to wriggle out of direct military involvement in
Ukraine, but Transnistria has no chance to avoid the inevitable. And the terrorist
attacks need to become the focal point for the transition of the war into a new
format.
That, so far, the plan of direct bombings of civilian homes
inside Russia has been denied is a huge plus [the exposure helped with this
(#WindofChange is referring to the 15th #FSBletters Vladmir & I
published in Russian & English)]. But shifting the terror over to
Transnistrian civilians is not an acceptable solution either.”
🧵🚨URGENT: 15th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 4/8. Message to the people of Russia and regional FSB offices to anticipate impending domestic terror false flag attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure by the Russian government.
19th FSB letter is a continuation on the subject o Transnistria false-flag terror attacks
🧵My translation of the 19th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated: April 29. Topic: More on the #Transnistria false-flag terror attacks against civilians for May celebrations & upcoming military planes masquerading as "humanitarian."
My translation of the 16th #FSBletters from the
#WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 4/12. Topics: #Ramzan
#Kadyrov, #Russia #Nukes, total collapse or civil war, and much more Kadyrov!
Please share far & wide.
Please listen to this audio as it explains the context and
the genesis of the #FSBletters. It will help you understand the prism through
which these letters are to be read. You will understand in real human terms why
#WindofChange writes to Vladimir.
As always, my comments for clarification are in
(parenthesis). #WindofChange's parenthesis are in [brackets]. So, let's roll:
“Kadyrov has been demanding special attention of late, so
let me go over this character. For transprency: I have preconceptions about
this figure, but I will try to give an analysis without making personal
judgments.
Kadyrov has long ago [as part of the "war-operation"]
reduced the activity of his militarized formations to purely media work. Yes,
his special forces are involved in some attacks, but I will give a few
clarifications that can be considered maximally credible:
- The core of his strike groups at the moment is not made up
of his elite special forces, but of some "Chechen volunteers," members
of the law enforcement agencies, and so on. The percentage of his elite
fighters there has decreased dramatically;
- Virtually all combat operations by Chechen units are
conducted from behind the lines of the Russian Armed Forces, and even the
forces in LDPR. This is called the "dog-and-pony-show";
- The Russian military command, judging by the data provided
by the guys from ДВКР (DCKR - Military Counterintelligence), does not have a very
good idea of where the so-called "elite forces of Chechen units" are
now.
In Chechnya itself there are very active military moves
being made, maximally hidden from the public eye. There is reason to believe
that Ramzan Kadyrov fears for his own safety due to risks of both internal
revolts and external threats [everyone from Ingushetia (bordering Chechnya) to
the various agencies, including our Service is getting in line (to neutralize
Kadyrov)]. But everything may not turn out to be so simple.
There is reason to believe that Kadyrov not only understands
the inevitable civil war in Russia, but is actively playing the sides of the
potential rift [Hawks-Doves]: He is simultaneously agitating this rift to a hot
phase while also trying accumulate sufficient large-mass support of the radical
forces ready to be activated in case the schism fully materializes.
Once again about the civil war: The current reality leaves
the country with two options.
First - a total collapse due to a complete combination all
the wrong actions put together.
Second - a civil war and a chance to leap into some kind of engineered
solution.
To acknowledge this reality – a factual admission of the
defeat for the Service. Which is why I don't want to elaborate on this topic
for now - it hurts.
Kadyrov himself couldn't care less about Ukraine, about
Donbass, or about this whole war-operation.
He has transcended this framework; he is already thinking in
a different reality where war/operation is just an element for his plans.
While he was considered just a fool with great power
resources, he turned out to be much more cunning [I won't yet say anything
about "wiser-smarter"].
Right now, Ramzan is building his game at breakneck speed, a
game in which he is not just intending on shutting himself out in defense [like
we ourselves assessed until recently], but he is determined to go on the
attack.
In essence, he will be the main beneficiary of Russia's
military failure: in the coming Donbass meat grinder, he is guaranteed to keep his
forces intact, while in any outcome of the battle, the rest of the Russian
forces will be severely depleted and exhausted.
His loud declarations about "marching on Kiev" are
a wind-up of the supporters of war in Russian society, who can absolutely no
longer satiate their appetites through any theoretically possible outcome.
Even if our armed forces win the Donbass battle, the forces
will be so weakened that the only thing left to do is take a long pause,
consolidate positions, and start urgent replenishment of forces, while it is
already unrealistic to restore technical capabilities under such large-scale
sanctions in a short period of time.
And even for that you still have to win, which is impossible
without large-scale use of non-conventional means of destruction.
The experience of modern warfare of this kind [Syria, Iraq] shows
that in the best case, Russian losses will be 1:8, if not 1:10.
"A tactical
nuclear strike" with this kind of intended battle line system would
accomplish nothing, a massive strike could provoke such consequences that there
is no point in considering them. That is, if it’s “technically possible,” for
which there is no certainty.
More precisely, to begin with, this would require the
consent of all those involved (to execute a nuclear strike), which appears to
be complicated.
Then it will require that the technical capabilities match
the "wants," and everything is tricky here. And then you still have
to launch in a way that you don't get an equally entertaining missile hitting
the point of origin. (A responding nuclear strike from the West)
And the missiles will still need to reach the targets,
because "non-uniform intercepts" of such missiles over our territory
could be an unpleasant "side effect" that would override everything.
In any event, Kadyrov can't help but realize that after the
battle of Donbass he will have the most powerful and combat-ready military
force in the country.
But then a great turmoil could ensue, in which everything
would be unclear.
The Bolsheviks weren’t any serious force in Russia at the
beginning of the last century, but they took proper advantage of the situation,
along with the presence of certain valuable cadres, and did not make a mistake over
time.
Turmoil gives a chance to those who before it had no chance
and who will turn out to be situationally ready for it.
Moreover, Kadyrov is not actually a supporter of the
"Russian patriotic ideology" [all his fairy tales of being
"Putin's infantryman" are tales for idiots]: If he manages to swallow
the whole of Russia - ideal, if he manages to swallow a significant part of it
- also good, if he manages to create a conditional "Caucasus Emirates"
- and who says that this isn’t enough for Kadyrov and those who are now very
quietly and methodically preparing the turf for this project?
All real analysis ends at the point at which the turmoil [civil
war, total upheaval - wordsmithing is allowed here] begins. By all indications,
Kadyrov is preparing for this moment like no other, everything else is noise,
designed to conceal his true plans.
The culmination of the Russian problem has now been created
personally by Putin - already by the fact that he puts his political demands
above any expediency: military, social, economic.
We don’t have a strategy - there are some global
requirements that demand positive reports and plans only in the style of
"now we will achieve" [hence the "analytics", rather than
real analytics].
As recently as two weeks ago, there was hope that the
current crisis would force the country's top leadership to take a responsible step
back, assess the situation, and look for real solutions to the current
situation.
But instead we see the behavior of a player who has had a
breakdown in the excitement and is trying to win back his lost bets at any
cost. And there is no one to stop him, and his environment indulges in it [you
should see how even our people grovel (in the FSB)]…
And it is Kadyrov who has now popped up from this theme. He
cries out louder than anyone else, he is yelling about the adventure on Kiev
louder than anyone else.
Right now he's getting ready to make a breakthrough, which will
not be easy for us to counter.
And a lot of forces in the coming chaos may try to quickly
join the "strong hand" (Kadyrov) that will help them not lose the
old, and also bite off the new.
The fact that after their victory this strong hand of theirs
will beautifully let them slide onto the knife – that notion will be somewhere
out there, in the "wonderful far away.”
But we are not allowed to talk about this today. We can’t
write such reports. Prohibited from assessing the global situation. Do you
remember, as in Galich's story?
“And you will breed the wolves on earth,
And teach them to wag their tail,
And that it will come at a cost –
Well that’s, you must understand – later…”
So Kadyrov is getting ready for this "later" now,
for all intents and purposes. In the meantime, we're going to catch some
traitors, so there's that...
I don't see any more options for preventing this and I'm
moving into the mode of declaration.”
My translation of the 10th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France. Dated: March 17. Subject: #JAPAN. Please share far & wide.
Please listen to this audio as it explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read. You will understand in real human terms why #WindofChange writes to Vladimir.
As always, my comments for clarification are in (parenthesis). #WindofChange's parenthesis are in [brackets]. So, let's roll:
"Vladimir, hello!
I will now supply information on events that occurred six months
ago. In this instance it’s easier: I can afford provide specifics which the
experts will be able to cross-verify, but details which won’t risk me being
identified.
In August 2021, Russia was quite seriously preparing for a localized
military conflict with Japan. Confidence that the countries would enter the
stage of acute confrontation and even war was high. Why Ukraine was chosen for
war in the end [the scenario was not changed much] is for others to answer.
So, August 2021. The Eastern Military District [VVO] was supplied
with Mi-8MTR-1 helicopters, equipped with the "Rychag-AV" (Рычаг-АВ)
electronic warfare system, the FSB declassified the data from the interrogation
of Otozo Yamada, commander-in-chief of the Japanese army during World War II,
the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan happened immediately after the US troops
withdrew, damaging the reputation of the US Democratic Party. Events that don't
seem to belong on the same page.
But let's start with the main point. The key stumbling block
between Moscow and Tokyo is the Kuril Islands.
For Japan, there is a cornerstone of its modern geopolitics here:
its status as a World War II loser still prevents the Japanese from having an
official military force, a foreign intelligence service and a number of other
things. For the Land of the Rising Sun, the return of the Kuril Islands would
actually mean a revision [or even cancellation] of its postwar status.
For Moscow - the Kurils are a bargaining chip. It's a bargaining
chip with Japan but even with China: The Heavenly Kingdom (China) takes any
attempted revisions to the postwar agreements very negatively, and a potential
victory for Tokyo in the dispute over the Kurils is unacceptable to Beijing. It
is so unacceptable that China would easily complicate Russia's life for making
such a "gift."
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was already placing a
strong emphasis on two things: trying to "negotiate" with Russia over
the Kuril issue and reforming the country's intelligence service. “Reform"
meant creating its own foreign intelligence service along the lines of
Britain's MI6. Historically, Japan's military intelligence has always been at a
high level, but after the defeat in World War II it was simply abolished at the
behest of the victors.
And if Putin was still trying to intrigue the Japanese at the end
of July (2021) with an "unprecedentedly interesting" offer on the
Kuril Islands, on the backdrop of Afghanistan everything began to change
rapidly. But what is the connection?
First, I will highlight specifically what began to change. Well, we
declassified the interrogation data of Otozo Yamada, commander-in-chief of the
Japanese army during World War II.
Initially, as early as August 8 the Russian mass media were rather stingy in
their comments on the news: they claimed that Japan had been preparing for war
with the USSR since 1938, plans of the attack were being hatched, diversions
were made, etc.
But on August 16, the Russian media literally exploded at the same
time, discussing the declassified documents in a completely different tone:
The Japanese allegedly conducted terrible biological experiments
on Soviet prisoners, and treated Soviet prisoners extremely badly. The details
of the plague lice that were used to torture prisoners were scrawled all over
the place.
Russia Today, the main mouthpiece of international propaganda,
also joined in.
The FSB actually had the task to launch an information campaign
against Japan in Russian society. Abruptly, suddenly and almost unexpectedly. That
is, if you don’t take into account the events in Afghanistan.
The Americans obviously didn't get it right, at minimum with this
picture:
The regime they supported managed to collapse before the Americans
even got out.
Taliban, who met no resistance, even slowed down towards the end,
so as not to drown in the shortage of middle-ranking managerial personnel
needed to wield the acquired authority.
Barack Obama even turned off comments on his social networks,
tired of the barrage of criticism directed at him.
And we are not even discussing the U.S.’ possible game of
geopolitics - we are talking about image and the picture of what was happening.
[Trump, of course, immediately attacked Biden in the information field]
And this is where the question of Japan for the United States [through
the Russian eyes] was opportune.
But before that, let's go back to the subject that the Russian Air
Force was aggressively deploying the Mi-8MTPR-1 helicopters during the same
period.
If we discuss the technical characteristics of the Electronic
warefare "Rychag-AV" on these helicopters, this system is capable of
interfering with the electronic radar of the enemy over the radius of hundreds
of kilometers.
And the reason for such actions is the fear of American missile
systems, which very soon could have been very close to Russian borders (around
Japan). "Strike first" and all that kind of stuff.
The U.S. did have plans in this region.
The priority, of course, is the growing confrontation with China,
and the peak of this confrontation is scheduled for 2023, when Chinese leader
Xi Jinping will seek re-election.
To make clear, Xi Jinping is a key opponent of the democratic camp
in the United States, so the victory of the head of the Communist Party of
China in the election will make the confrontation between the United States and
China very hot.
This is why it was seen as extremely important for Washington not
just to get Japan's support, but to delegate to it a rather complicated
function in confrontation with China.
Tokyo does not have a burning desire cross certain red lines with
Beijing, but...
If the United States makes the most significant [or, more
precisely, visible] contribution to the Russo-Japanese conflict [even if it is
quite local), namely, a victory for the Japanese side, the Japanese side will
automatically owe too much to Washington.
And Washington would’ve shifted the attention of domestic
audiences from failure in Afghanistan to success in Asia.
A caveat here: the Russian authorities [as You refer to them,
PolitBureau 2.0] really believe that all the countries around them, if they
cooperate with the United States, want to attack us.
For Japan, the very notion of "victory" in such a
hypothetical conflict could consist of only one thing: the signing of an
international treaty that would effectively "end" the status as the
capitulating country (from WW2) to allow some outcomes to be reconsidered. These
outcomes may be a pure formality, but the Kuril Islands look absolutely
perfect.
At minimum, to escalate the situation to the maximum, threaten war
and then starting negotiations was acceptable (in Russia). Just like prior to
the war with Ukraine, which did not prevent the war.
Russia is lagging in this geographical direction (East Asia), so
“silencing the far-fast sky” – is a task capable of providing Moscow
considerable points.
And the Afghan events have apparently finally convinced the
Kremlin that the U.S. will somewhat speed up the process of resolving the Kuril
question.
The likelihood of a military conflict was considered non-zero, and
there was active spin in the Russian information space against Japan.
The bet was placed on the fact that the Japanese specialized in
brutal biological experiments, showed inhumanity, and had a disposition for
Nazism.
And they should have demilitarized after the war, but they violate
these regulations, creating risks for Russia.
Subjects that made headlines: Russia saved the world from
biological war, declassified evidence of preparations for an attack by Japan on
the USSR, etc.
There wasn’t much faith in a victorious blitzkrieg in the event of
possible military clashes.
Apparently, that is why the war at that time and place did not
start [at that time - the summer of 2021 - no one believed in it, nor in the
war with Ukraine].
But on the whole, war was inevitable for Russia due to the
maniacal desire for war by the leadership (Putin is not alone in this). This
has become definitively obvious today; it was simply an underestimation of the
level of insanity at the time.
