My translation of the 13th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Dated 3/30. #WindofChange gives you an insightful peek into the reality of how intelligence communities around the world actually work. Not Hollywood. Please share far & wide.
If you still have not watched this video that explains the context and the genesis of the #FSBletters, please do so. It will help you understand the prism through which these letters are to be read.
I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:
[PORTION REDACTED]
The world in our reports does not always reflect the world that exists in reality. But our leadership believes only in the first world; if there are discrepancies, so much the worse for the real world.
Now to the hard part – what is happening. Anyone competent doesn’t know, and concurrently those who are incompetent know all. To actually know & to think that you know – are not the same. Our management belongs to the 2nd category. Here, by the way, hides the natural “protection from spies”: in all intelligence agencies (#WindofChange means all – around the world, not just Russia), it is considered that the higher the level of the contact (spy) in this or that structure, the more valuable their information. The Americans did know precisely the plans for the attack on Ukraine, which means that the level of their source is of the highest level (in the Kremlin structure).
(Note: This is because #WindofChange found out about the concrete invasion plans after the US intelligence did, as these plans were secret even from many in the FSB until the last possible moment - about 1 week prior to the invasion.) I’ve already written to you that in Russia, the hierarchy is built not on professionalism (competence), but on loyalty.
Sure seems like it, doesn't it? US intel was on the money re: actual invasion. But many other critical things, which were stated with high confidence, turned out to be completely wrong - Kyiv would fall in 2-3 days, cyber warfare will shut down all electronics before invasion... https://t.co/z8doPj4Y0e
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) March 8, 2022
Accordingly, the higher the level of management, the less reliable their information. Sure, they know more about actual plans (than #WindofChange), but at the same time they completely confuse the verbs “want” & “can.”
If you were to be present at Shoigu’s interrogation before the war [hypothetically], he would have given an unvarnished fantasy (as truth): the Russian army is at peak combat readiness, the Ukrainian army is comprised of pathetic ruffians, their civilian Territorial Defense Forces are ordinary bandits and can’t fight, and we will take Kiev in three days.
Do you know one of the secrets to my invisibility from the FSB? (Note: The FSB has established a task force to identify #WindofChange, but have failed so far) The data that I pass on to you, which you then publish, "do not correspond with the level of our (FSB in general) assessments, but are based on a number of reliable facts obtained by technical espionage."
The leadership is very far from a real understanding of things, because it constantly demands "to simplify the situation," "to give a simpler answer," "to remove this decadent tone.”
And as a result, they see and transmit the reports up the chain-of-command that are very different from what I am sending you. And the management believes that the more senior the position (in the FSB), the more they know, not the other way around.
And now you can try to understand what we have going on. I have already given you a psychological portrait of Putin, too. He cannot give a firm "no" (to anyone in his close circle), he will always agree with everyone, as he approves contradictory decisions.
2nd #FSBletters is all about the psychological assessment of Putin:https://t.co/PtXlZ7cHfj
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 3, 2022
In cases of success, it was "the president's achievement," and where it failed, it was "your own fault, I gave you the authority!”
There is always a conditional division into "hawks" and "doves," but our leadership (both in the FSB and in the country as a whole) does not like to take a side when the winner is not very clear. That is why the country divided into "warmongers + politicians-talkers" and "businessmen + analysts.”
The latter group are rather notional "doves" as they advocate not so much peace for peace's sake [not about that at all], but to try to minimize their losses in an attempt to build a system for the country's survival.
Against the backdrop of sanctions and problems, the "doves" have significantly more supporters from the "neutral masses" in power, and they have gained very significant informal support. I sensed it in communications with our people as well. Many who publicly positioned themselves as "hawks" were actually quietly helping the "doves."
In addition, hawks rely on strength and assertiveness, doves on intelligence and cunning. Therefore, the hawks blatantly miscalculated their support - the "undecideds" are in favor of the hawks, believing in their positions, while the doves relied on a very broad layer of assistance - they were helped covertly, but significantly. Even in the negotiations the doves were selling their Blitzkrieg.
Given this scenario the hawks are fully risking ending up on the skewer, but in the open, as that is their better chance than in a backroom confrontation. Their counterattack on the doves is going hard and strong, as we can see now.
Let's take a look further out: the line of such a conflict is also a risk for losing seats for some and a chance to bite off from someone else for others - simultaneously.
In general, there was a chance for hawks and just for the nimble and quick guys to strengthen their positions near the President amid shouts of betrayals in the inner circle.
Kadyrov isn't just making a fuss there: there are a lot of questions for this boy, for example, with us. If he had lost his footing, it would have been time for some questions. Hence, he made such a hawk out of himself to play off the attacks on him as "attacks on Putin.” All right, let's wait...
What’s important to understand: the military component of the operation has nothing to do with these backroom games. Sounds wild, but only to those who do not understand Russia and our system of government at all levels.
Militarily we are burning. Even the General Staff, when talking about losses, carefully mentions that these are Defense Ministry losses, although other departments are a dime a dozen. Missing persons are not counted either, nor are prisoners of war. Casualties are only confirmed casualties and only for one department. Once again, no one knows the real death toll right now.
Militarily, it is already obvious that it’s impossible to hold the front line by current forces.
It's not just impossible to attack, it's not even possible to hold the position.
The first Chechen war began with the successful capture of Grozny, and then there were fears that "we got to make it to the green zone, or something terrible will happen."
In our case, no one has even surrounded anything yet, we're not even talking about an assault, and we can't even mention a capture of anything. And the green zone is already materializing.
Militarily, it all comes down to at least having time to seize the territory of the LDNR.
I won't go into any analysis here - I'm not a military specialist, but so far things aren't going very well with Mariupol either (militarily, for Russia).
The red lines on the dates are May 9, which, under any circumstance, must take the form of a celebration. This is just psychology: the capture of Kiev or "the successful defense of Moscow against the Ukrainian Nazi battalions" may be a victory celebration here, militarily speaking, it’s a matter of luck, but victory must still be declared. And ideally for the leadership (of the FSB) to at least show something resembling a victory by May 9. That’s why there is an intensive contraction of the front line for an opportunity to strengthen the concentration of troops in promising directions. In a week or two the military result should be evident, then further decisions will be made on how to proceed.
Beside this issue – we no longer have any management (in the FSB).
Management is the work of collection of channels of information, channels of information which combined paint a precise full picture – and clear commands are issued for that collection of information, and the implementation based on that information is controlled.
We don’t have a coherent understanding of what’s happening at all. Methodical approach to work is dead systematically. The management at all levels does not understand what needs to be done, what their people are doing, and even what’s happening. But the reports must have declarations of victories. Any professional intelligence officer who’d infiltrate us (the FSB) with a mission of collecting & organizing our information will go crazy on the 3rd day of work. But alas we have to live (in this)…
Plans for conquering the world have not disappeared, it's just that everything is happening in a completely impulsive, incoherent, idiotic way. Different centers of power are pushing their own "strategies," calculations to completely understand the implications are not being made.
“How about we sell gas for Rubles? Yes, let’s do it!” If the West agrees, then the benefits are obvious. But what if they refuse? “We’ll shut off the gas and they’ll come crawling to us in a month.” But what can they throw at us in response, even if they do crawl back? What implications will that have in 3-6 months, when the West will no longer be reliant on our gas, but will hold their grudge? There is no longer any available storage capacity for oil, and freezing the wells can cause enormous problems. And why was this gas idea (gas for Rubles only) pushed through by some incomprehensible economists, when the FSB and the SVR (Russian Foreign Intelligence Service) should be involved in a simple matter: actively buy up Central Asian gas and resell it to the Europeans. Now we're going to hurt the Europeans (with the Ruble stuff) - but how will Central Asia feel about the fact that they're caught in the crossfire? Can we afford to having a falling out with them (Central Asia) over this? And to what extent? This hasn’t even been analyzed – it’s an impulsive act to pressure the Europeans. No one solves anything comprehensively anymore.
So what if these dumbasses from the GRU (Russian Foreign Military Intelligence) bomb a church in Armenia?
China/Taiwan also discussed in the 12th #FSBletters :https://t.co/BfimZn3EA4
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 3, 2022
Let's start with the question, where did Ukraine get the data on our employees that they are now publishing online? What about the GRU data? And who else has how much more of such data?
What if the glorious guys (sarcasm) with explosives are picked up by the intelligence service of a hostile country right in front of an Armenian church? All right, let the performers be unaware of who is using them and for what purpose, but where is the guarantee that the whole chain will not be exposed? They already poisoned Navalny. Who was involved & how – everything became public, to the smallest detail. But that was then, and now times are different, it won’t be so innocuous for us.
By the way, I'm not justifying or supporting this stuff - I'm only conveying.
And I'm just guessing: what if we get caught doing these similar "breakthrough initiatives" now?
One more example, which is very relevant to you (the last publication on corruption in the army):
The Defense Ministry is trying to whine that any criminal case of grand corruption against them is pure performance for the foreign intelligence services. Now is not the time, not allow. (Meaning the Defense Ministry is saying we are at war and this is no time to be accusing us of corruption.)
And this argument is partially working. But our leadership also venomously whispers in the ears of the upper echelons that he who is caught is the enemy. Why did they set us up like that? (The Defense Ministry, which is led by Shoigu, was blaming the FSB for the failures of the invasion)
At least they (Defense Ministry) could’ve shown some (success) militarily, but instead – I think that our venomous whispers will become louder than their tearful cries
Such a system of dynamic disintegration of power lends itself very poorly to systemic analysis. Nothing can be salvaged in this condition - you'll have to rebuild everything from scratch. Immediately after everything collapses and scatters. But how exactly it will collapse and scatter is a mystery. I am still convinced that the maximum horizon of critical events is late spring, early summer. This is the maximum margin of safety for the country as a whole. Militarily, everything will be resolved sooner - there is no more strength to maintain the current pace, so a radical break is already ripe. A couple of weeks at most, and then we'll see. In a few days we'll see how the new format of the "operation" develops.
With regards to the economy... Sanctions, inter-industry relations, balances, the outflow of highly mobile labor - no one is able to see the situation as a whole, but in each specific area the problems are just off the charts.
And, by the way, internal revolts are ripe from all sides. From this perspective, I admit that now it is possible to recruit volunteers for the war with Ukraine - just in case it is more profitable to utilize, or to put it mildly - to neutralize them there instead of them exploding into a serious revolt here.
Technically, I expect such a solution, although I am fully confident that when implemented, it will immediately go wrong.
And for dessert - China. No one has any idea how China will act under these conditions. But attempts on our part to 'push' China to take over Taiwan, if uncovered, could take our level of adventures to new heights. (END OF TRANSLATION)
REQUEST: Vladimir and I have been doing this work without expending any money. We will be much more effective if we can allocate financial resources and take this fight to the next level. Help provide Humanitarian aid to Ukraine & also fund us:https://t.co/JpAesvyFub
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) April 2, 2022
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Readers have asked where they could donate to me personally for this work. That's very kind. Thank you. Links Here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUmeTFhv5Bm-4rqCw6PTXTg/about
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