I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. Let's start:
"You may recall that even before the war with Ukraine, I wrote you about the preparations of anti-Polish provocations.
At that time, there was a catastrophically botched technical result when Polish soldier Emil Chechko escaped to Belarus, who told of the hundreds and thousands of refugees whom the Poles allegedly shot en-masse in the forests. (This claim was blatantly false, failed RU psyop)
Well, it’s impossible to simply forget such prepared material, when the people at the very top were involved in said preparation – it’s impossible to forget. To forget – means to accept the plan as ineffective & problematic. In the current situation that admission would threaten an exemplary flogging of the people in charge.
In addition, the question of Poland as a new possible target has not been dismissed and is not going to be dismissed. I will try to list the key points:
- Poland is the main supply channel for Ukraine. Including military supplies;
- Even in the case of a theoretical victory over Ukraine, although it is not even clear what this might look like, it would be Poland that would become "Ukraine in exile," reducing the effect of victory to a minimum;
- The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would mean Russia's defeat in the eyes of both adversaries and neutral countries: such a powerful argument for a local conflict would demonstrate military weakness, which not even military success could override. Therefore, to possibly intimidate the West, such strikes could, very much hypothetically, be carried out against Poland; (Meaning as an empty threat only)
- The situation in Ukraine transforms Poland into a powerful economic beneficiary with a simultaneous growth of absolute anti-Russian sentiments there: a huge inflow of refugees, among whom there is a high percentage of both the wealthy & young able-bodied, the role of Western aid transiting into the country; assistance from other countries, etc. For Russia, and Belarus, too, the example of Poland's rapid economic and military breakthrough is turning into a huge threat;
- Poland is enlarging its own army, in addition, this is where Ukraine's military can be withdrawn if Ukraine loses, and in Russia too many people in power believe that there is clearly too much (for the Polish army) to defend, which means Poland is preparing for an attack on Russia.
That is why a conditional "anti-Polish bridgehead" is now being actively prepared. The dead Emil Chechko will also play his part: at any moment the Polish special services will be accused of his murder, which will amount to an "attack on Belarus" with the corresponding invocation of the clause on mutual military assistance (between Russia & Belarus).
(Emil Chechko was allegedly found dead, hanged, in Belarus on March 17th, 2022.)
Medvedev's anti-Polish passage is also part of this "sentiment conditioning” (preparing the Russian people to accept an attack on Poland as a necessity, and shore up public support in Russia).
The only counterweight to this – absence of concrete strategy for Russian leadership’s behavior.
When decisions are made literally on a knee-jerk and ad hoc basis, the risk for mistakes goes off the charts, and any decisions already made can be changed just as rapidly. But at the moment, the risks of a military operation against Poland are steadily increasing, and there are no guarantees for anything in today's Russia.
(INTERMISSION) (Will finish translation later. The rest is about Ukraine. I've been going non-stop for weeks now and I am exhausted. Please see this thread for insight on why I am doing this, and what I believe:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1503475294316900353)
(Big takeaway, although unsurprising, from the 2nd half of the letter: Mass "cleansing" is being planned for Kherson as they are unable to get the civilian population to submit to Russian rule. Russian leadership has instructed those on the ground to "stop playing with them" & )(a "Big Terror" will happen in Kherson. Kremlin is prepared to eliminate up to half of Kherson's population of ~300,000, optics be damned, to get Kherson to submit on its knees to Russia. Genocide. And - assertion that Russia has completed its transformation into a fascist state)
(END OF INTERMISSION - TRANSLATION CONTINUES BELOW)
On the subject of Ukraine.
Even our staff’s mindset is rapidly changing for the worse. (I could think of half-a-dozen distinct ways to interpret exactly what #WindofChange means here, so I can’t offer clarification)
Cities that are under control of the Russian army are essentially in a constant state of rebellion. If it were possible to identify the coordinators of the protests, they’d be liquidated (killed). The saving grace for the Ukrainian civilians there is that it is unclear who needs to be grabbed (by Russian authorities). There are fears that attempts to conduct pinpoint brutality as revenge (by Russian military against Ukrainian civilians) may result in a real rebellion, which could then only be suppressed by a massacre of civilians. This is completely negative option, and even the most reckless bosses here (FSB) understand this.
However, there is a demand to “stop playing with them (occupied Ukrainian civilians)” from the very top (Kremlin). There is fatigue from attempts to create a pretty picture and to find an appropriate plan.
“Big Terror” is being planned for Kherson, which will go through several stages:
- A switch to extremely harsh methods of dispersing protestors by the Russian authorities. Goal: To reduce the scale of the currently massive protests down to local skirmishes, and to cause severe injuries to individual protestors.
- To strengthen the countermeasures, "partially civilian structures" may be involved: Cossacks brought in from the LNR (Russia-occupied Luhansk oblast in Ukraine, since 2014), Crimea and Russia itself, members of veteran organizations, "combat wings," and so on.;
- Transition to local terror to “squeeze” people off the streets;
- As soon as the mass of protests is reduced, the final stage of “door-to-door terror” will begin: here the FSB will play first fiddle and people will be detained in their homes at night during curfew and transferred to Russian territories (concentration camps & worse). It is assumed that protests will cease completely after such cleansing – the remaining protesters will be suppressed openly, as was the principle used to form the first Anti-Maidan in Ukraine in 2014. We are prepared to remove half of the city if it becomes necessary.
(Above is the description of the Kremlin/FSB plan, reference to “we” is Kremlin/FSB & from context it is clear that #WindofChange does not want any part of the “stop playing with them” plan for the occupied Kherson.)
Again, every new development showed that our people (Russian government) refused to accept the reality of the responses (by Ukrainians) to our actions (Russian government). (Meaning Ukrainian resistance to Russian actions control the occupation have continued to surprise them)
Regardless, the plan for such suppression measures will be implemented – the leadership does not see any other way as the current situation categorically does not suit them. (#WindofChange's personal assessment that this plan will be executed)
As for Russia, it is already impossible to rebound from the complete transformation to fascism. (Russia is now a fascist state)
But in light of the extreme chaotization of all of the country's structures and segments, fascism in Russia will take the form of indiscriminate large-scale terror.
(#WindofChange asserts that unlike Hitler's Germany for example, another fascist state, Kremlin lacks total control over domestic government & societal structures, which will result in large-scale terror inside Russia to bring everyone in line.)
To say that “Terror existed in Russia before” is not exactly correct because everything is relative. It used to be bad, ahead of us is hell.
P.S. Many (Russian military) frontline lieutenants were killed at either point-blank range or under strange circumstances. This issue is not being disclosed & there is no hurry to investigate either.
I can’t affirm categorically, but there are indirect signs of refusals to follow orders of “Forward! Forward! Forward!” (On the front in Ukraine by pretty high-level Russian officers)
(END OF TRANSLATION)
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