My translation of the 6th #FSBletters in the series from #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 13th. Highly time-sensitive information of what to expect from Putin in the coming days. The text is over 1500 words.
As always, my comments for clarification are in parenthesis. So, let's roll:
“It appears World War III has begun; our guys are opening champagne - the war between Iran and the United States disrupts the nuclear deal and blocks the ability to replace Russian oil with Iranian oil. The inevitable shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil to skyrocket in price. I have no idea why Iran chose to shoot itself in the foot. I’m could even believe in the existence of some kind of generally incomprehensible agreements (between Russia & Iran), but I don’t have a single fact that supports this.
Today I just want to convey information about the impending "exit" for Russia through our eyes (FSB as an organization, not #WindofChange individually) and the "courtiers" at the Kremlin. (Reference to a royal court under a King)
This is not a “copy,” (of the actual brief)
but an extremely accurate retelling, so you can do with this as you wish,
including full publication without any redactions.
Currently there is only an outline, and a final report will be much more voluminous, detailed, and more concrete as the work has only just begun. Afterward I will try to provide my own input (on this new plan) as I am currently pre-occupied with the situation of the Iranian-American conflict. The “Gordian Knot” will definitely be seriously revised/adapted (because of Iran launching a missile at the US base in Iraq).
Operation “Gordian Knot”
1st Stage: Most likely, Konashenkov (Major General, chief spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defence) will officially declare at a briefing that Europe and the “collective West” have declared war on Russia by intervening in the Ukrainian conflict with their weapons and mercenaries, while simultaneously attacking Russia in the economic plane (sanctions). There will be an extended lecture that war is not contained to military operations on the battlefield, but it includes an array of aggressive actions aimed at causing direct damage to the opponent. That the West’s action de-facto unleashed a world war. That this war has not yet moved into the “hot stage” with missiles and tanks only because Putin, as the supreme commander in chief, did not give such an order. Nevertheless, Konashenkov will declare that the third world war has begun.
2nd Stage: Assessment of the reaction (by the West) – 1-2 days.
3rd Stage: Putin will make a speech. In this long lecture he will declare that the modern world is not as it was before, that war now includes cyber attacks, preparation of biological attacks, direct attacks, training of terrorist & saboteurs, and imposing of sanctions devastating to the economy. He [allegedly] does not want war, but the West has already started it (against Russia). As a result, (Russian) response need not be symmetrical and can respond to any act of aggression with any means available in a military confrontation. “I warned with Ukraine – but nobody listened” (Putin’s message). Russia has shown that its words (threats) are not empty. Putin will declare that he is ready to come to terms (forgive) with what the West has already done, but only if sanctions are lifted within 24 hours, all assistance to Ukraine is stopped, and that NATO will guarantee not to expand. (Still Putin’s upcoming speech) Otherwise, Russia will have no choice but to accept the war and respond with all available means.
4th Stage: A fierce negotiation
process (between Russia and the West) – in the initial hours Putin will be
conspicuously unavailable for communication (with the West). Other countries’ presidents
will be obliged to discuss issues with Putin’s aides – “or not at all.”
Putin's demonstrative private phone calls will begin with the leaders of countries that Russia is betting on: Serbia, Hungary, China, the Arab world, African countries and Asian countries.
Assessing the situation of the West’s readiness to respond to the challenge, agents of political influence will be activated. They will call to “immediately fulfill Russia’s just demands, and not drag the world into a new war” - here the task is to quickly propagate the message that “the war was unleashed by the West, but Russia cannot not to answer.”
Stage 5: Based on the assessment of the
situation over the following 24 hours, the following options are possible:
1.
1) West blinks and is
prepared to make local concessions. In this instance the following position will
be voiced: “we have been heard, there are positive signals and we consider this
a factor that allows us to delay making a final decision." (Whether to
start military operations against the West) Putin will set aside several days
for the negotiation process, after which he will “make a decision.” In this scenario
the West is given time to go through stages from denial to acceptance – practically
all that will remain is to extract maximal concessions (from the West), which
will turn out to be the most significant. The maximal objective is to sign a
new international treaty of a global nature (total appeasement of Russia)
2. 2) The West does not comply, but openly does not
want war. In this instance “military targets” will be demonstrably identified:
Poland and the Baltic countries. Moreover, identification of “limited targets”
in these countries is possible, with a public appeal to civilians not to be
near these objects. Immediately after this, a super-intensive format of negotiations
will start, with a key goal of forcing the West to reject all support for
Ukraine and a possible “compelling of Ukraine to peace” by the West. Strategic
aviation and nuclear triad will be activated, and a No Fly Zone may be declared
over these countries (by Russia). Chances of success (for desired concessions
from the West) are considered to be highly realistic (if it gets to this point).
Otherwise, localized missile strikes (against Poland and Baltics) will be
almost inevitable.
3. 3) The West does not comply and demonstrates
readiness for war in response. This scenario is
considered to be extremely unlikely. In this instance cyber attacks will be
launched on key infrastructure facilities of Western countries. Russia will not
take direct responsibility, while actively "moving" its forces of the
(nuclear) triad. With this development of events, the risks of the West using
military methods to respond are assessed as negligible, which gives Russia room
to maneuver to conduct an indirect war to create unacceptable conditions for
the West with the risk of total economic collapse. After this, negotiations are
considered inevitable and will result in the scenario #2 above. And –
4. 4) In the case of an absence of clear coordinated
signals (from the West), which is assessed as unlikely but acceptable, the (Russian)
behavior will be similar to scenario #2 above (as well).
5. 5) A fundamental collapse of the West within the
time allotted (by Putin) after the ultimatum was issued. Rejection of “collective
security”: Withdrawal of several countries from NATO (and possibly European
Union), each with separate appeals to Russia that they are not conducting
aggressive actions against Russia and they are not part of the possible war.
Then everything will default back to scenario #1 above, but Russia’s strength
in position (for negotiations) will be comparable to that of the USSR. In the
future, this will allow Russia to take political control of a number of countries
that were part of the USSR. NATO as an integral structure will cease to exist.
6. 6) A fundamental collapse of the West, but with a clear separation of a number of countries [Poland and the Baltics] from the moderate position of other countries. (Here, #WindofChange means a scenario in which NATO tries to appease Russia but Poland and the Baltics refuse to stand down to Russia) In this case the “pro-Russian wing” of the Western countries will accuse these countries (Poland/Baltics) of fomenting conflict along with a demand “not to drag our governments into someone else’s conflict.” Russia's objective in this scenario is to apply maximum pressure on Western countries with a moderate position, demanding that they “keep the aggressors (Poland/Baltics) from reckless actions." In this situation, within a period of 3 to 7 days, Western countries with a moderate position will be ready to accept local strikes against countries with radically irreconcilable countries (Poland/Baltics), after which missile strikes [on military targets] will be launched on them (Poland/Baltics). Direct infantry invasion is considered acceptable but unlikely.
For all the above (six) scenarios, these assumptions are assessed as extremely probable:
- Arab countries, Iran, China, some African
countries, and [presumably] India and Brazil will take neutrality with a
general condemnation of "mutual aggression";
- Some European countries are guaranteed not
to support military confrontation: Italy, Hungary, Serbia, possibly France;
- Powerful movements will be activated inside Western
countries aimed to both support Russia and recognize it as a “defending side.”
A number of anti-war movements not necessarily in support of Russia but which
will create an impossible environment for their governments to make a pro-war
decision;
- Global nuclear war will not happen;
- The Ukraine question will be resolved with finality – by the West.
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