My translation of the 7th #FSBletters from #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 14th EU time(~2 days ago). Covers #WindofChange’s assessment of the Operation “Gordian Knot” that is being cooked up by the Kremlin. The text is barely 1100 words.
Vladimir Osechkin is a Russian human-rights activist exiled in France since 2015. His years-long fight against systemic torture in Russian prisons sanctioned & overseen by the Russian government began when he was still in Russia and continues to this day.
There are some in the Russian intelligence services, such as the FSB, that sympathize with his crusade to expose & end the horrible tortures in Russian prisons. The 1st #FSBletters I translated is only the 1st since the invasion of Ukraine. There are more that preceded it.
My comments for clarification
of context, tone, and also nuance that can be missed from translating from RU
to EN are in parenthesis (). Author’s original parenthesis are in brackets []. So,
let's roll:
“Vladimir, good [REDACTED]!
I now have an opportunity
(time) to briefly explain the previous letter (6th #FSBletters)
The Iranians made some noise,
but it turned out to be IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) saber-rattling: they
were aiming at Mossad (Israeli intelligence agency) facilities, apparently
based on intel that Mossad fed them (IRGC didn’t know the info was coming from
Mossad), but Mossad set them up them up to hit US facilities instead. (MY COMMENT:
Before people start freaking out – 1) Mossad likely fed bad coordinates to IRGC
so there’s minimal damage & 2) Mossad warned the US of the attack before it
happened. No, Mossad did not betray/setup US. It would’ve been done in coordination between Israel/US.)
Turns out, everything worked
out, and our guys canceled the champagne: all prerequisites are satisfied for
concluding a nuclear deal (by the US) with Iran, after which Iranian oil will
start flowing (to the West), replacing Russian oil.
About the “Gordian Knot”
While sometimes share my own assessment as I
see the situation, here (in the prior #6 #FSBletters) I conveyed our (Russian
government – Kremlin & FSB bosses) vision and plans in the current situation.
Such plans also have one more important goal, beside the implementation, which
can turn out like the “Ukrainian Blitzkrieg”: internal psychological reassurance
in the form of the semblance of a solution. A sort of self-motivation or even
self-sustainment.
Moreover, I can’t criticize the plan too
strongly either: at least it has more [technically speaking] objective factors
than in previous bravura marches. (He is describing the previous delusional plans
as if they are military parade marches – everyone just starts marching without
thinking)
Europe, and most importantly France will start
pressuring Zelensky (President of Ukraine) to get him to capitulate: Their elections
are just around the corner, they think in terms of rather simple mercantile categories,
and by and large, assess the situation as impressively (sarcasm) as in the 30s
of the last century, when an ordinary Austrian artist actively involved himself
in geopolitics.
The attack of the Yavoriv facility
by Lvov is just part of this general plan: The attack was not on an ordinary Ukrainian
military facility, but on a facility of international importance, where there
could very well have been active NATO advisors.
The attack was intentionally carried out so that
the trajectory of the missile flight went through European (NATO) air. And the West’s
reaction is playing right into Russian plans: West is convinced that it can completely
strangle Russia without ever unsheathing its sword.
My personal conclusion – a large-scale
international conflict is unfolding at a rapid pace. (Domestically) Russia has aggressively
mobilized the power resources (riot police, etc.) and in classical terms we have
entered the stage of fascisization. (Russia is now a fascist country structurally)
If the West is hoping that we (Russia as a country) we will self-immolate in
this mode, then we (Russia as a whole) have blossoming panic-calls for large-scale
external aggression. The inevitability of the collapse of the nation (Russia) with
the systematic execution of the West’s strategy (in response to Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine) is obvious to many of us (author probably means FSB analysts, or
maybe Russian people in general). Therefore, many such people that were placing
blame squarely on Putin for his adventurism, albeit without vocalizing it, now consider
the option of external aggression as the only one left to survive: “What else
can we do?” (The nuance in Russian is critical to convey - he does not place himself
into the category people who think this way)
The attempt to force a rat into the corner to methodically crush it may not
turn out to have such a methodical result.
This of course is only my view, a subjective view,
but that we have moved from the stage of denying reality to working on addressing
the question of resistance is fact.
Yes, we no longer have an economy, nor do we
have a capable army, but the psychological readiness of the West for war is
also assessed as even lower.
That Kiev would last 3 whole days was barely believed by anyone here on the first
day (of the invasion). That Ukraine would hold for 10 days – they didn’t believe
it in the Pentagon, nor in our Defense Ministry, nor anywhere else.
A new reality has arrived. There are no hopes for
a “Victory in Ukraine” – even the taking of Kiev would yield nothing, and even
the taking of the entire Ukraine would not lead to victory.
And the prospect of such a “capture” (of Kiyv or of Ukraine) do not appear very
realistic. To put it mildly.
And Russia has turned into a different
nation: The war has affected everyone psychologically.
The category of “how it used to be” has totally
disappeared.
Current Russia has no survival
outside of a military expansion regime.
The tiniest decrease in
internal mobilization will lead to an unprecedented internal upheaval – there is
more steam under the lid than we can handle, so the only technical solution is
to redirect that steam toward other objects.
There is no place for Russia
in the current political world order, inside Russia there is no organizational
resource capable of a systemic coup and a change of power.
Takes time to reach a state of
complete chaos, right here and now the large scale system that is Russia will
not fall apart [this is not Cuba with its quantitative localization]. Minimal internal
mobilization of the population will be sufficient to redirect the attention of
the population.
The question is no longer
whether there will be an external war, but in its forms and variations.
Not in the long-term [that no
longer exists], but very soon.
Please note: Neither COVID nor the common cold is
no longer observed. This is a normal story when everyone & everything is mobilized.
Afterward, of course there will be relaxation and a “hangover,” but right now everyone
is too involved in what is happening – no one is indifferent.
The state from the effect of “action on adrenaline”
is an extreme situation – it is a characteristic state for both individuals and
society as a whole. A Russia beyond the boundaries of this state can no longer be
observed. It is also impossible to get stuck in this state – as I wrote before.
A rabbit, for example, can also sprint away from
a threat without stopping - until the heart bursts.
Therefore, the decision to "change the
external environment" technically appears to be without alternative.
Not a “correct” one (the decision), but precisely
without alternative from the point of view of the current system in Russia.
The situation in the world is such that the old format of coexistence is fully
destroyed.
Even if we allow that theoretically Shoigu
(Russian Minister of Defence) will be blamed for everything tomorrow, who “lied,
slipped in false data and unleashed a war,” and is “convicted and shot himself”
- will change nothing with the West.
For the West, today’s Russia
has become an unacceptable threat, and even the departure of V.V. Putin will
not change that calculus. For Germany in ’45 the question of Hitler’s death
also could not become an answer formulated as “The guilty is dead, we are
innocent.”
Overall, All old models of
behavior & analysis – all this is now irrelevant.
A month ago, I would have
considered a plan for a Ukrainian Blitzkrieg as falsified, but today I consider
a scenario of a large-scale international conflict as quite possible.
Russia has approached this
with an entire set of arguments, main one being – “We have no other choice.”
Why there is no other choice – is a question that is always answered in very
different ways.
The West will say that we
started all this, we can say that we “were defending ourselves, and you responded
unreasonably.” And every point of view will have a lot of followers.
Let me remind you for a second
that Hitler did not force the population of Germany into war - they wanted it
much more than our population wants this war.
Of course, there is also a chance
that our powers-that-be choose a traditional strategy of “lets sit through
this, wait it out, and we will see how it all resolves.”
Previously, we practiced this
strategy in cases of force majeure from the very top.
But right now, I don’t really believe it: the processes
in motion are so large-scale and intense [in terms of time, in terms of
emotions], so…
Of course, we can fall apart organizationally the
moment an external campaign starts [in any shape that could take].
We (Russia) could start an external war and not
show up for it ourselves (entire Russia) because of the internal disintegration
that such a turn of events would cause.
Here we are already talking about extreme [atypical]
scenarios, which are distinguished by the fact that they are almost not
amenable to precise logical analysis.
No analyst could’ve provided an overview of the
results of the First or Second World Wars before they began.
On the other hand, history remembers Idi Amin and
his attempt to score a “little win” against Tanzania.
But, unfortunately, the global scale of consequences
of those actions and current ones is monstrously different. It's not easy for
us to rebound.
P.S. In our structure (in the FSB), everyone
really misses t he good old days when the "Toxin development
facility" was recognized by the leadership as key current threat to
Russia's security.
(END OF TRANSLATION)
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