My translation of the 4th letter in the series from an active FSB analyst to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 9th. As consequential as the 1st translated letter. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The text is over 1200 words.
Vladimir,
good afternoon!
This is
probably the first time that I’ve been able to write to you in the daytime
during a weekday – everything is upside down now.
Under
different circumstance, this information would look like utter nonsense, but
right now, I am afraid, this won’t be the end of it.
First, we
(FSB) are seriously evaluating a version that the current events of war with
Ukraine is a war between the US and China, in which the Americans simply set us
up and are using us. Now I’ll try to explain succinctly & clearly.
(This is
the new ‘nonsensical’ working theory that the FSB analysts are being tasked to work
on)
A global
clash between the USA and China was unavoidable. After the war started in
Ukraine [at least here in this correspondence I don’t have to use the term “operation”]
the cost of resources has risen globally, especially energy. The main casualty
of these events is China and our side (Russia) provided China certain
guarantees, which I can personally confirm – that everything will end quickly
(invasion of Ukraine). Which is why China has been tolerating the situation.
But this was before.
The
American situation is such that owners of the industry and oil drilling are in essence
the same corporations, and that helps with the internal balance: They make
money on drilling when oil is expensive, and when it’s cheap – from industrial
development. This is a bit blunt, but it provides the necessary insight into
their approach.
And shales
(oil fracking), unlike the classic method (of oil extraction), is easy to stop
and start.
Now the US
will make an agreement with Venezuela and Iran. They can buy out Venezuelan
light crude with a crazy discount. And the opening of the Iranian oil (market)
will obviously be perceived with hostility by Saudi Arabia and UEA. The Yemeni
conflict is also relevant here, and a row of other factors which I will ignore
for the sake of simplicity. But it all leads to the fact that the US had
already made preparations for these negotiations in advance.
The US has
basically set a trap for us, almost analogous to the trap set for Iraq in
Kuwait, when Saddam Hussein was being convinced that for a “small conflict
(incursion)” there will be no response. He entered Kuwait and “Dessert Storm”
began. And that was the beginning of the end of Iraq.
We were
receiving similar signs that the US will not get involved, which has been confirmed
from a military perspective. China can absolutely give us a harsh ultimatum to
end the war to stabilize the price of oil. If this happens, I don’t want to
make predictions – it’d be on the horizon of catastrophic events.
Russia’s
image is so negative in the eyes of so many countries because of the war, that
the US can easily pressure the Europeans to impose sanctions against China in
case China decides to maneuver around the current sanctions against Russia (to
help Russia). China’s high dependence on exports coupled with its dependence on
commodity prices would result in a fatal blow if the cost of commodities goes
up because their domestic market will disappear (Chinese population can’t
afford the increased price of goods).
Not only
that, Xi Jing Ping was considering a takeover of Taiwan in autumn – he needs his
own small victory to be re-elected for his 3rd term – there’s a
colossal internal fight between the elites. Now after the events in Ukraine,
the window of opportunity (to take Taiwan) has been closed. This gives the US
an opportunity to blackmail Xi and also negotiate with his rivals on favorable
terms.
In this
instance, it is us (Russia) that set this trap for China through our actions
(in Ukraine).
We won’t
be able to admit this out loud, even an assessment of scenarios from current
conditions is “not entirely appropriate.” Hence the desire that the secret
becomes open: Yes, this is only a working version, but it exists in our
structures (in the FSB).
Second –
the evolution of the current situation.
Now about our other plans, which go beyond
any boundaries of insanity. Sanctions against Russia have reached a level with
no precedent in history. The only thing that Putin is right about – this is essentially
equivalent to war. The current approach with sanctions leaves Russia without
any chances.
Now the
matter may not be limited to threatening Europe – the chance of hostilities, albeit
of localized nature, can be considered to be historically high. Ukraine is a monstrously
large front, there are smaller fronts. For example, if we were talking about
Moldova, the military operations would really be limited to several hours. With
the Baltics – several days, but there’d be artillery hits first.
Actual threats
of conventional rocket strikes against Europe [not bluffs] in the event of
further sanctions can no longer be dismissed. Supporters of such an approach,
who exist among those with influence on the decision, muse that in a sordid
case we will simply be crushed by waiting until an internal implosion and
collapse from inside (in Russia).
In addition
to the rockets, we have the capability to conduct a massive cyberwar – the internet
can be shut down (by Russia inside Russia). Such a possibility exists and it’d
be difficult (for the West) to respond symmetrically (since Russia won’t have
internet anyway).
And the
external war should reduce the internal tension and redirect the aggression
outward. However “should” – doesn’t mean it’ll be so.
There’s also
one that is rather realistic [but I can’t say it’s good] plans to start a
massive disinformation campaign that we are prepared for the war and sanctions for
years to come: This should pressure the Ukrainians psychologically – “It won’t
end quickly, better to surrender” and also the West.
I suppose
that various government powers (in Russia) could start pushing their own plans
(on how to proceed). That will simply lead to even more chaos (in Russia).
I won’t
talk about the economy – it’s like discussing the nuances of pacifism while
being nuclear-bombed.
The terror
has strengthened – there are no internal instruments to hold the situation
inside the country.
But terror
is a complicated and expensive thing – it should become temporary. It’s like
holding your breath because the air is poisoned: If you can escape the area,
then the action is justified. But if you hold your breath for “an hour” – you saved
yourself from the poison but…
Systemic
decisions with a positive outcome do not exist. There is no Ukrainian political
power that we could delegate the authority just for the optics. If we show
Yanukovich (former President of Ukraine that was Putin’s asset, who dismantled
the Ukrainian military pre-2014), it will only expose how bad things really are
here. No single strategically important city has been taken in Ukraine. Kherson
and Kharkov were considered the most pro-Russian. Pro-Ukrainian protests are
not dying down in Kherson despite the presence of our soldiers. In Khrakov things
are much worse.
Just
summarizing the gist without getting into the details.
There is
another piece of information that is critical.
The “Plan
for Victory” in the FSB is being painted as such:
Zelensky
will be pressured into signing a fluff peace agreement recognizing Crimea as
Russian, and Luhansk- and Donetsk-oblasts will become LDNR. LDNR will be the
focus of our negotiators in terms of nuance, etc. But it’s just a distraction.
The key clause
would be about demilitarization, which would essentially ban Ukrainian
intelligence services, and most importantly counter-intelligence.
And here
our people (FSB) already see the prognosis: Over a number of years, it would be
possible for us (FSB) with some minimal help from the GRU (Russian Military
Intelligence), to carry out a total cleansing of the socio-political field in
Ukraine. And after all this, we could install any government in Kiev.
With high
probability this plan will become dominant for the Kremlin with strategic
correction, although the scenario is insane and aggression on other fronts is
not being cancelled. In theory, the plan does have potential, but how it will
be in practice is unknown. There will be no military victory, only something
like this.
Lots of
nuances, but most important – our side will be able to breach such agreements
after they’re signed anytime, when there’s strength to turn the tide. Then it
won’t be the military but the “black crows” who will be executing the “second
phase,” arresting those accused of breaking the agreement from the Ukrainian
side.
This scenario
is not so crazy like the others, but it is completely contingent on the fact
that Kiev can actually be pressured in the negotiations. We are now working the
Western contacts at the highest levels – looking for countries who will support
our position and to put pressure on Zelensky. It could be another bluff, it
could be an analogue of Wenck’s army in our current reality. Overall, as I’ve
been saying, the level of chaos here is quite high.
In
economic terms, we are falling and everything is very predictable: the abyss is
fervently winking at us.
We are limited in our ability to verify all data, but consider it important to disclose this information for the purpose of informing of the existing threats to global security. Нет войне! (No to War!)
END OF TRANSLATION
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